Bond rally fades as Iran says ceasefire violated
Oil remained lower by more than 10%, but the benchmark two-year Treasury note, erased its gain for the day, to yield about 3.79%.
Fixed income
Bond traders risk being wrongfooted by 2022 playbook, UBS warns
Treasuries and gilts especially reflect unrealistic expectations that inflationary pressures will goad central banks into another 2022-style rate-hiking cycle.
US bonds steady as traders bet war uncertainty keeps Fed on hold
Interest-rate swaps showed traders wiped out what little remained of their wagers on Fed easing after unexpectedly strong US labor market data were released Friday.
US bonds fall as Trump’s Iran threats add to inflation angst
Concerns that inflation pressures will intensify drove the biggest monthly increase in 10-year Treasury yields in March since late 2024.
Barclays predicts growing Treasury market will need bailouts
The $31 trillion US government debt market "has grown far faster than the quantum of bank capital," creating a gap between the supply and demand for liquidity.
Government bonds rally around the world on slowdown concerns
The recent shift in focus toward slowing economic growth is easing fears that central banks will need to adopt an aggressively hawkish stance to control inflation.
Bond market nears ‘inflection point’ after war-related selloff
While the biggest amount of unwinds occurred on March 2, the new positions added since then have broadly signaled short positions, targeting higher Treasury yields.
Treasuries slide as elevated oil prices fuel inflation fears
The Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all held rates this week as policymakers grapple with the uncertain outlook for inflation and growth arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
Bond traders no longer price in any chance of Fed cut in 2026
Yields in Europe and the US climbed across maturities, with those on two-year US Treasuries — especially sensitive to expectations for Fed policy — higher by 11 basis points to 3.89%.
Traders rethink Fed rates outlook as growth worries build
As war in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring, stoking inflation fears, traders pushed back expectations for the Fed's next rate cut into next year.
Treasuries slide as oil’s rise fuels investor angst on inflation
Traders are now fully pricing in the next quarter-point rate reduction in mid-2027, and a growing chorus of Wall Street economists have also pushed their calls for the next cut further out the calendar.
Music royalty ABS hits a high note with investors
Steady cash flows are attracting new capital to music royalty investments, including securitization, as issuers pursue deals with a broader range of artists.
War cost sinks long-term government bonds on deficit worries
Investors will likely demand higher compensation for longer-dated bonds. Combined with the inflationary pressures from surging energy prices, it's a volatile cocktail for fixed-income investors.
Traders flip to betting against Treasuries as war drags on
This month's slump in Treasuries "is really a deleveraging dynamic," with traders liquidating long positions as they price in fewer Fed cuts and the risk of hotter inflation.
Stagflation trades sweep markets as Trump signals widening war
Treasury yields are up almost a quarter percentage point since the war in Iran started, while traders have pushed back bets on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate cut and hikes.
Treasury yields reach weekly highs as inflation risk mounts
Meanwhile, the February US employment report to be released Friday is expected to show deceleration in job growth, potentially reviving the case for Fed rate cuts.
US Treasuries extend fall as traders slash Fed rate-cut bets
Traders priced in about 50% odds of more than one quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year, after fully pricing in two cuts as recently as Friday.
Key things to know about the US-Israel conflict with Tehran
Treasury and European bond yields rose as traders scaled back wagers on interest-rate cuts in the US, UK and euro area.
Best month in a year for bonds sends 10-year yield below 4%
During a month when warning signs flashed alarms in other markets traders flocked to US government debt.
Treasuries rise before auction as US tech shares slump
Bonds were buoyed by a rally in the UK market, while Friday's month-end Treasury index rebalancing — incorporating sizable quarterly issuance — may trigger additional buying from passive investors.
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