Bond selloff stalls on report of progress in U.S.-Iran talks
Yields dipped as much as three basis points Monday after Iran's semi-official Tasnim reported that Washington proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions.
Treasurys
Yardeni stays calm, not ‘freaked out,’ as Treasury yields surge
The yield on the 10-year has eclipsed 4.48% this year, while the 30-year bond yield surpassed 5.03% on May 4. representing more than 50 and 40 bps jumps, respectively.
Bond traders brace for inflation data as Fed’s Powell era ends
Treasury two-year yields rose four basis points to 3.93% as oil climbed after the US and Iran rejected proposals aimed at ending the conflict.
Fed data suggest Japan sold U.S. debt amid intervention
Any decline in Japan's Treasury stockpile may put further upward pressure on U.S. yields, which are already being driven higher by surging oil prices and concern the Iran war will widen America's fiscal deficit.
U.S. punts on debt auctions, signaling no changes into 2027
The Treasury anticipates keeping nominal note and bond sale sizes unchanged "for at least the next several quarters," the department said on Wednesday.
U.S. 30-year yield hits 5% as oil surge fuels bets on a Fed hike
Interest-rate swaps showed traders have priced in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike by April 2027. That marked a sea-change from before the Iran conflict.
Treasuries draw buyers after selloff as oil surge stalls
Hawkish votes against the policy statement, which characterized the risks to the economy as balanced, led traders to price in lower chances of a rate cut at any point before 2028.
U.S. Treasury yields hit highest levels since March as oil surges
Yields across maturities rose by four to six basis points, with short-dated tenors most sensitive to Fed rate changes leading the shift.
ECB’s Nagel says Trump’s Fed attacks caused flight to safety
When Trump put pressure on the Fed this didn't lead to higher inflation expectations, but to lower Treasury yields, a fall in equity prices, a surge in gold and a weaker dollar.
Traders bet on post-war calm to keep rates in tight range
In testimony Tuesday, Warsh avoided answering questions about the near-term path of interest rates, further supporting the market's wait-and-see stance.
Treasuries weaken before Warsh testifies for Fed chair role
The move followed upbeat signals on consumer spending and the labor market, with both the ADP weekly jobs report and March retail sales beating forecasts.
Traders revive short-volatility bets as peace hopes calm markets
Gauges of bond swings have declined almost every day since late March, as optimism has grown that the US and Iran are moving toward a agreement to end a month-long conflict.
US Treasuries fall as inflation data erode Fed rate-cut wager
The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.
Bond rally fades as Iran says ceasefire violated
Oil remained lower by more than 10%, but the benchmark two-year Treasury note, erased its gain for the day, to yield about 3.79%.
Bond traders risk being wrongfooted by 2022 playbook, UBS warns
Treasuries and gilts especially reflect unrealistic expectations that inflationary pressures will goad central banks into another 2022-style rate-hiking cycle.
US bonds steady as traders bet war uncertainty keeps Fed on hold
Interest-rate swaps showed traders wiped out what little remained of their wagers on Fed easing after unexpectedly strong US labor market data were released Friday.
US bonds fall as Trump’s Iran threats add to inflation angst
Concerns that inflation pressures will intensify drove the biggest monthly increase in 10-year Treasury yields in March since late 2024.
Barclays predicts growing Treasury market will need bailouts
The $31 trillion US government debt market "has grown far faster than the quantum of bank capital," creating a gap between the supply and demand for liquidity.
Government bonds rally around the world on slowdown concerns
The recent shift in focus toward slowing economic growth is easing fears that central banks will need to adopt an aggressively hawkish stance to control inflation.
Bond market nears ‘inflection point’ after war-related selloff
While the biggest amount of unwinds occurred on March 2, the new positions added since then have broadly signaled short positions, targeting higher Treasury yields.
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