Watch spreads, not the Fed, for mortgage rate shifts
Concerns regarding AI companies' ability to handle inflation drove the 10-year Treasury under 5%, but with data still running hot, could yields turn upward?
Concerns regarding AI companies' ability to handle inflation drove the 10-year Treasury under 5%, but with data still running hot, could yields turn upward?
Investors drove long-term Treasury yields down this week on concerns regarding AI-related debt, but inflation and the Iran conflict can push rates higher.
If Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments lack substance on inflation in the market's opinion, it is likely to drive mortgage rates even higher, NerdWallet warned.
For the second week in a row, the 30-year fixed increased by 11 basis points, Freddie Mac found, a result of reaction to oil price hikes from the Iran conflict.
For the first time since early September 2022, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey has the 30-year below 6%, but the 15-year gained this week.
Even with the 4 basis point rise in the 30-year fixed over the past two weeks, mortgage rates are still hovering near three-year lows, Freddie Mac said.
While new jobs data contributed to falling Treasury yields, mortgage rates showed a mixed picture with some trackers moving in opposite directions.
The 30-year conforming fixed rate mortgage ended this week at its lowest since last Oct. 17, helped by bond traders pricing in a reduction in short-term rates.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 2 basis points this week, Freddie Mac said, but other sources like Zillow and Lender Price reported larger drops.
Fannie Mae economists toned down their housing and economic outlook in August, predicting fewer home sales and less mortgage origination volume versus July.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by 5 basis points, with the Consumer Price Index showing muted inflation and jobs data still influencing the market.
The 30-year fixed rate stayed within a narrow range throughout most of July, with forecasts likely to leave the housing market "stuck," said one economist.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his regular press conference Wednesday that the process of determining tariff-related price increases was always going to be slow, but it has taken longer than he expected.
Let's delve into the factors shaping the outlook for mortgage interest rates in 2024.
Mortgage rates rose this week as investors priced stronger than expected inflation and jobs affecting Fed moves into the 10-year Treasury.
Mortgage lenders offered more cash-out refinance programs at a time when consumers might be coming to terms with the rate environment.
While the government-sponsored enterprise cut its origination forecast for this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association's updated forecast was unchanged from its October prediction.