Wall Street’s AI debt machine is starting to choke on supply
Yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors.
Yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors.
A split Congress has often been a bullish recipe for Treasuries. Benchmark 10-year yields have been lower on average one and 12 months after midterms that produced such a result.
Kevin Warsh doesn't want the market slavishly paying attention to the Fed; looking at what's happening in the the bond market, it may already be obliging him.
The July jobs report was bad, but the context is worse: people leaving the labor force, stubborn inflation and rising bond yields.
The bond selloff reflects mounting concern that prolonged disruption to energy supplies will keep inflation elevated, hindering central banks from lowering rates.
Gauges of bond swings have declined almost every day since late March, as optimism has grown that the US and Iran are moving toward a agreement to end a month-long conflict.
Being a diversified global bank, Goldman Sachs was "broadly seen favorably as a relatively safe haven type of credit," said Tony Trzcinka, an investment grade portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management.
Treasuries and gilts especially reflect unrealistic expectations that inflationary pressures will goad central banks into another 2022-style rate-hiking cycle.
The department said it anticipated keeping auction sizes unchanged for nominal notes, bonds and floating-rate notes, "for at least the next several quarters."
U.S. government bonds were little changed, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries at 4.12%.
Few doubt the deal will draw solid demand from local buyers. Argentina could receive between $2 billion and $4 billion in orders, largely from real-money funds and overseas banks.
In September, panic swept through Argentine markets. The peso plummeted and the country's dollar bond yields skyrocketed over 17%, prompting the Trump administration to rush emergency aid to Milei to curb the selloff.
The government closure that began on Oct. 1 has delayed the release of official data that traders rely on to assess growth and inflation and gauge the Fed's next steps, after it eased last month for the first time this year.
Treasuries climbed across the curve, driving two-year yields down three basis points to 3.51%. Money markets almost fully priced in three Fed reductions by the end of 2025.
U.S. consumers probably experienced a slight pickup in underlying inflation in July as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.
Oneok plans to sell three-part, dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes while BMW is looking to price dollar-denominated debt in a four-tranche offering.
The insurance-linked market's rapid growth continues as natural catastrophes grow
Portfolio managers are selling default protection at an increasing pace, a signal they see little risk on the horizon. Their position on the main investment-grade U.S. credit-default swap index now amounts to over $105 billion, the most in at least three years, based on data compiled by Barclays Plc and Bloomberg. It's a similar picture in Europe.
Managers of collateralized loan obligations are struggling to make the numbers work after high demand from investors enabled borrowers to squeeze their interest margins.
Barclays led the sale, which consisted of three investment grade rated bonds and one rated junk.
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