Traders are risking it all on bets that market boom will last
Economic data keeps defying bearish predictions — everything from gross domestic product to consumer confidence and hiring has beaten forecasts.
Bonds
Bond traders bet on ‘nirvana scenario’ in new yield-curve theory
In a "Nirvana scenario" market experience all the gain (an end to nasty price increases for consumers) without much pain (a spike in unemployment or a major hit to the stock market).
Frontier Communications to sell $1 billion fiber-backed bond
The company will use some of its fiber-optic network and associated customer contracts in the Dallas area to back a bond issue that will refinance some of the company's existing debt and finance a network expansion.
Investors warn Trudeau his bond-reform proposal will backfire
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is considering winding down the Canada Mortgage Bond program in a bid to reduce borrowing costs.
Morgan Stanley says Bill Dudley is wrong about bond market
In their latest assessment of the bond market outlook, Morgan Stanley strategists are challenging the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's view that losses are likely to deepen.
Warehouse giant Prologis raises $2 billion in bonds to fund real estate purchase
The company sold debt in three parts, according to a person familiar with the deal, including selling more of an existing bond due in 2053. The reopening of the 30-year bond yields 1.6 percentage point over Treasuries.
Dell seeks to buy back $1 billion of debt to brace its ratings
The PC maker plans to repurchase as much as $1 billion of senior notes maturing between May 2024 and May 2027. It will pay for the buyback with proceeds raised in a January bond sale.
Global high-yield default rate seen hitting 5% in 2024, Moody’s says
The forecast assumes US high-yield spreads will widen to 532 basis points over the next four quarters, from about 460 basis points at the end of May, with US unemployment rising to 4.8% from 3.7% in the same period.
Citigroup warns bond traders are misreading inflation ahead of CPI
Bond traders have overestimated month-over-month headline inflation heading into four of the last seven Consumer Price Index releases, says strategist Raghav Datla.
Franklin’s bond chief says 10-year yield could top 4.3% if inflation stays hot
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect US policymakers to leave their key rate unchanged when they meet next week, though focus will turn to an upcoming reading of consumer price data for May.
Fintech platform LTX launches chatbot to help U.S. bond traders
The chatbot, powered by OpenAI Inc.'s GPT-4 language model, is an attempt to simplify work flows for traders who often navigate a complex market where liquidity is increasingly waning
Pimco sees best bond return potential in 14 years as rates rise
Investors can get equity-like returns by investing in short-term publicly traded bonds, which are generating yields of 6% to 8%, Pacific Investment Management Co. executives said.
Stocks rebound after McCarthy’s debt deal remarks: Markets Wrap
Traders amped up wagers on a June rate increase to about 40% after Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the case for a pause next month is not clear.
Borrowers pounce before the going gets rougher: Credit Weekly
Funding conditions have eased since the height of financial-sector volatility in March, with US new issue concessions and average yields dropping.
Bank jitters hit stocks as traders rush into bonds: markets wrap
Treasury two-year yields slumped as much as 21 basis points and approaching the 4% threshold. Bonds also climbed after data showing JOLTS jobs opening figures.
CNH returns to raise $817 billion on mostly agricultural equipment contracts
Analysts have a base-case proxy of 1.2%, accounting for stress in the agricultural sector, which includes higher default levels from the 2006-2009 and 2015-2017 vintages.
Goldman traders miss out on Wall Street’s fixed-income boom
Fixed-income trading revenue declined 17%, the firm said in a statement Tuesday, leaving Goldman the only major Wall Street bank so far to have posted a drop for that business.
Bond market is overplaying the risk of a deep recession
Two-year Treasury yields slid a percentage point over three days in March, the most since 1982. Gone are the days when inflation was the main menace.
U.S. yields extend slide on worries over economy: markets wrap
The two-year U.S. rate, which is the most sensitive to monetary policy, slid for a fifth day, its longest streak since July 2022. Economists now assign a 65% probability of a U.S. recession.
Bonds catch a bid as recession talks heat up again: markets wrap
Traders flocked to shorter-maturity Treasuries, driving two-year yields down 18 basis points at one stage. The 10-year note's rate was 1.5 percentage point lower than the 3-month T-bill.
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