Housing is in a double-dip recession, First American says
High mortgage rates and the lack of inventory for sale pushed the sector into a downturn twice recently – between May and November last year and in May of 2023 – according to First American
Economic news
Fannie Mae forecast foresees lean times for lenders
An economic slowdown would deliver lower interest rates but tighter credit standards, while a "soft landing" for the economy wouldn't solve the low inventory problem, a new report said.
Does the commercial lending slump hint at a looming recession?
Tighter credit standards and lower demand for business loans could make it harder for the Fed to achieve the soft landing it's seeking. Still, bankers are cautiously optimistic, noting that some businesses are using their savings to invest at a time when borrowing costs are high.
BofA’s warning of a ‘5% world’ sinks in with yields pushing higher
The surprisingly resilient US economy, ballooning debt and deficits, and escalating concerns that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high are driving yields on the longest-dated Treasuries back to the highest levels in over a decade.
The Fed’s interest-rate debate is shifting
Inflation pressures are easing, which could give policymakers room to keep interest rates at or near current levels for the time being.
Credit-rating downgrades could mean higher costs for banks
Moody's said higher funding costs, a potential decline in bank capital and growing risk in the commercial real-estate industry prompted many of the downgrades.
Disinflation spreads in emerging markets and selloff deepens
Much of the bullish case for emerging markets this year was predicated on a growth recovery led by China, which successive data releases have shown to be patchy at best and a non-starter at worst.
Bond traders bet on ‘nirvana scenario’ in new yield-curve theory
In a "Nirvana scenario" market experience all the gain (an end to nasty price increases for consumers) without much pain (a spike in unemployment or a major hit to the stock market).
FOMC preview: One and done?
Analysts look at whether the FOMC will bring the last rate hike in the cycle, whether recession is coming, and whether the Fed is making a policy mistake.
Fannie Mae sees tightening ahead but leaves housing forecast unchanged
Researchers at the government-sponsored enterprise also maintained their outlook for a modest recession but moved anticipated onset to the fourth quarter this year.
Fed’s Bostic says bar to justify further rate hikes is higher
Bostic said he agreed with the view that "the bar to justify further rate hikes is higher than it was a few months ago."
Credit conditions expected to remain poor this year, bank economists say
The American Bankers Association's credit conditions index remained near historic lows despite a slight uptick in the most recent quarter. Pessimism pervaded the outlook for both business and consumer lending.
US inflation slows, giving room for Fed to pause rate hikes
A key gauge of prices closely watched by the Fed continued to rise at a concerning pace. The core CPI rose 0.4% for a third straight month, in line with estimates.
Citigroup warns bond traders are misreading inflation ahead of CPI
Bond traders have overestimated month-over-month headline inflation heading into four of the last seven Consumer Price Index releases, says strategist Raghav Datla.
Fed will keep rates high thanks to inflation fueled by corporate greed, investors say
Some 90% of 288 respondents in a Markets Live Pulse survey said companies on both sides of the Atlantic have been raising prices in excess of their own costs since the pandemic began in 2020.
Seasonal jump in housing interest reverses
A larger share of sellers were optimistic in May, but the percentage of enthusiastic buyers fell, according to Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index.
With a debt deal pending, changes are coming to the Fed’s balance sheet
Once it is free to issue new debt, the Treasury Department is expected to quickly replenish its general account at the Fed. The move could lead to a shortage of reserves.
Banks may gain deposits amid debt-limit talks. But what happens next?
The banking industry, which has been contending with deposit outflows, could get a short-term boost from spooked investors. But once the White House and House Republicans reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling, the pressure on deposits may resume, analysts say.
Average monthly mortgage payment rises for fourth consecutive month
Home purchasers had to come up with 0.9% more in April versus what they would have paid in March and 11.8% higher on a year-over-year basis, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.
Waller: Fed’s balance sheet can’t go back to pre-pandemic size
The Federal Reserve Board governor said secular increases to the currency supply limits how much the central bank can shrink its holdings.
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