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Traders are now fully pricing in the next quarter-point rate reduction in mid-2027, and a growing chorus of Wall Street economists have also pushed their calls for the next cut further out the calendar.
This month's slump in Treasuries "is really a deleveraging dynamic," with traders liquidating long positions as they price in fewer Fed cuts and the risk of hotter inflation.
Treasury yields are up almost a quarter percentage point since the war in Iran started, while traders have pushed back bets on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate cut and hikes.
Futures spreads linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely track expected Fed policy, are becoming deeply inverted — a sign that traders are starting to price a more prolonged central bank easing cycle.
Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said AI could boost productivity, but warned the transition may raise unemployment and force difficult tradeoffs between inflation and jobs.
In a speech Tuesday, Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said it was possible that artificial intelligence will boost productivity in an undisruptive way. But he said policymakers should also be wary of a financial crash if those gains are not realized or a rapid adoption that could lead to labor displacement.
Large and mega investors accounted for 5.8% of all single family-home purchases in December, up from 4.8% at the same time last year, according to Cotality.
The path of US interest rates remains in focus following the slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July.
Yields across maturities declined by at least three basis points Friday, led by shorter-maturity tenors that are most sensitive to Fed rate changes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its delayed January employment report Wednesday morning, showing the economy added 130,000 jobs in January. But the agency also sharply revised its estimates for total jobs created in 2025 to 181,000 from 584,000.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech Friday that long-term productivity gains brought on by artificial intelligence could compel the central bank to maintain higher rates to keep prices stable.
Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said in a speech Wednesday night that the central bank's credibility depends on its ability to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh is a relatively known quantity to financial markets, but his embrace of President Trump's agenda and the White House's own contentious relationship with the central bank make it hard to know with certainty where — or even whether — he will lead the Fed.
Respondents to an exclusive NMN survey lay odds on lower rates boosting housing despite stagflation and recession risks. Here's how the Fed's view compares.
Observers said the Supreme Court likely will allow Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook to remain at her post while she challenges her purported removal by President Donald Trump. But her continued presence would slow, rather than stop, the president's quest for a voting majority on the central bank board.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned that labor market conditions could weaken further and said the central bank should avoid signaling a pause in monetary policy.
The positions in 10-year options could move closer to being in the money by the end of this week, with an array of labor-market releases ahead, culminating in Friday's government employment figures for December.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said economic uncertainty should ease in the coming year as businesses gain confidence in sustained demand and adapt to the new policy environment.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CNBC that both sides of the central bank's dual mandate show signs of imbalance, with the labor market appearing more vulnerable.
The Federal Reserve is slated to undertake a number of important rules and regulations in 2026, but decisions around agency leadership and the Trump administration's avowed effort to exert greater control over the central bank are likely to leave a lasting legacy at the agency.
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